A Changes Between Versions

Since the arXiv-only first version [4], several updates to the document have been made. The key differences are outlined below.

A.1 Updates to detector commissioning

The plausible detector scenarios remain largely unchanged, although the text has been updated to reflect our progress. With the aLIGO instruments now completed and both on a path of increasing sensitivity, and AdV advancing, the previous sensitivity evolution appears to remain on track. Modifications that have been made are:

1. While the O1 BNS range 40 – 80 Mpc has remained unchanged, our experience has led us to suggest a probable range within this interval of 60 – 80 Mpc; the range will not be fully determined until the completion of calibration for the run.
2. The length of O1 has been extended from three months to four months, taking the run into the early part of 2016. The search volume and expected number of detections have been revised proportionately.
3. The possibility of AdV joining aLIGO for O1 has been removed; this was always optimistic and none of the results assumed that this would be the case.
4. The potential time-line for LIGO-India has been pushed back. This will remain uncertain until funding is finalized, and forecasting progress on such long timescales is difficult.
5. The AdV 2019+ BNS range in Section 2.2 and Table 1 has been changed to 65 – 115 Mpc; this does not reflect a change in the timetable, but is just a clarification that a range of 130 Mpc is not expected until 2021.

A potential time-line for the sensitivity evolution and observing runs of detectors is sketched by Figure 2*.

A.2 Updates to sky localization

In addition to the progress made with regards to the detectors, there have also been advances in data analysis. The text has been updated to include discussions of the parameter-estimation codes that will be used in the upcoming observing runs; Section 3 has been reorganized to try to make this more straight-forward to understand. Specific results that have changed are:

1. The estimated localizations of the O1 (Section 4.1) and O2 (Section 4.2) have been updated to use results of full parameter-estimation studies. Results for these are shown in Figure 6* for BNSs and Figure 7* for bursts. Previously, no numbers were given for O1.
2. Table 1 has been updated to include the results of the O1 and O2 studies. Timing triangulation is still used to give an indication of sky localization for later observing runs, as full parameter-estimation studies have not yet been completed. These will be updated in the future, but currently serve to give rough (conservative) estimates [60, 31]. Parameter-estimation results for later observing runs will be included in the future.
3. Table 1 now also lists both the 90% credible region and the searched area; previously only the 90% area was listed.

An example BNS sky map, created using current parameter-estimation techniques, is shown in Figure 5*.